NostraChuckus Scoops New York Times II

The first time:

NostraChuckus Scoops New York Times
NostraChuckus is thrilled to be able to predict news stories weeks before the New York Times.

This time, make it years before:

In Shift, Ads Try to Entice Over-55 Set
By BILL CARTER and TANZINA VEGA
Published: May 13, 2011
… After 40 years of catering to younger consumers, advertisers and media executives are coming to a different realization: older people aren’t so bad, after all.

Sounds familiar:

"You're still relevant!" (2006)
Judge Judy is on a rampage (as if she ever isn't)

TV's youth obsession backfiring (2006)
In the spirit of fun and games with the news, I've come up with a few of my own reasonable, moderate, neutral headlines…

Calcified Advertising Agencies (2007)
… A prime-time TV show with most of its viewers in the 34-to-49 range can get 30% more per ad minute than one that caters to people 55 and older. Yet consumers age 50 and up already spend more than $1.7 trillion on goods and services a year…

More from the NYT piece:

They (Baby Boomers) have also become heavy spenders on electronics and digital devices. The study also showed that members of the 55-to-64 age group were just as likely as those ages 18 to 34 to have high-definition televisions, digital video recorders and broadband service.

Sounds familiar.  The pull quote on the cover of Advertising to Baby Boomers ©2005:

“It will be the Baby Boomers who will be the first to pick and choose, to ignore or be seduced by leading-edge technology marketing. There’s a simple reason for this. We have the money to buy this stuff. Experts say we’ll continue to have the money for at least the next twenty years. Write us off at your own peril.

Even more from the NYT article:

… the biggest misconception about the group was that older Americans wanted to be younger…

Sounds familiar.  From my book (2005, 2007):

Another grab from the book:

For the backstory to the NYT piece, I’ve made available the Introduction & 1st Chapter of Advertising to Baby Boomers:

Introduction: The Geritol Syndrome (PDF)

Chapter One: Why Companies and Ad Agencies Need Baby Boomers (PDF)

Why NostraChuckus and other notable soothsayers aren’t getting the credit for predicting all this …

Well, the Crystal Ball is hazy on that one.

Baby Boomer Bonanza Forecast

NostraChuckus, that uncannily somewhat accurate prognosticator who mostly deals with predicting common sense, is forecasting a new wave of economic interest in Baby Boomers worldwide.  This includes all advertising, marketing, media, economic development - and especially housing.

From Down Under:

Baby boomer bonanza forecast
Baby boomers will be an economic force to be reckoned with, according to a new report on New Zealand's ageing population … Far from being a drain on the economy, baby boomers could offer a multibillion-dollar boon, a new Government report says.

Report Focuses on Economic Benefits of Ageing
It is time to look at the economic benefits of ageing baby boomers rather than just the burdens, Senior Citizens Minister John Carter said today.

From AARP Global Network:

Boomers and seniors may be next big thing in media sales
Companies looking to sell products and services in industries like music, radio, television and movies have traditionally aimed at younger audiences, but a lack of interest among young people and a growing older population has prompted some professionals in the field to rethink their strategy…

In Spain, the number of younger radio listeners has declined in recent years, but boomers age 55 to 64 have started to tune into stations even more than before - 54.2 percent of the demographic regularly listens to the radio…

Movies are also experiencing a graying effect … the number of boomer and senior movie watchers has grown by 67 percent since 1995 …

Aging in Place, Home Improvement:

Kitchen & Bath Industry Show:
The age of ease
Products are moving toward easy-to-use design with an eye on aging baby boomers.

How Baby Boomers Will Grow the Home Improvement Market

NostraChuckus is not surprised by any of this.  Media planners, program directors, and everybody else in media and advertising will be surprised – and dismiss all facts as heresy. 

The Crystal Ball of Common Sense continues to augur aimlessly.

Click this ad. 0.051% do.

The Ad Contrarian tipped me off to this one:

The Click: Brand Marketing's Most Misleading Measure
… a tiny fraction of people ever click on an ad. In fact, 99% of stable cookies examined never click on an ad … optimization of campaigns to achieve higher CTR may in fact be reducing brand ROI.

So your digital agency says you have to put up a banner or bannerish ad on Facebook (or any social networking site). Media planners suggest an ad network.  If you follow their advice, what percentage of viewers will click on your ad?

Average click-through rate was 0.051 percent … The worst performing ad category on Facebook, per Webtrends, was healthcare, which generated 0.011 percent click-through rates and an average cost-per-click of $1.27.

Or maybe you should just stick with a fan page.

There’s a lot of bad advice out there. I don’t even take my own advice.  It’s only the beginning of May and already I’ve broken my new year’s resolution.

Virtual Professor Chuck Redux

From January 2010:

Virtual Professor Chuck
It all started around 1999 when I was writing on the web about Baby Boomers.  My articles were getting hits from a University of Southern California intranet site.  I thought for sure that some professor of English or Literature or an artsy subject like that had made my online scribblings mandatory reading. 

Then I found out the truth: the course was about Gerontology.

Skip ahead a few years, and yours truly pens a book about advertising to baby boomers.  I was floored when it was selected as a Classroom Resource by The Advertising Educational Foundation.  I still get emails from students and professors around the world.  The book is in the libraries of many colleges and universities.

Now I’m ‘teaching’ another course. Or to be more specific,  students have the option of putting up with the meanderings of a doddering non-academic, Virtual Professor Chuck:

Interdisciplinary Center on Aging
Established in 2009, the California State University, Chico (CSU, Chico) Interdisciplinary Center on Aging (ICOA) is conceptualized to fulfill the ever-growing aging needs of Northern California.

Recommended Links
2010 Review: National & International Marketing/Advertising To Baby Boomers
Click here to watch the video.

I need to buy a ruler for rapping knuckles.

Just A Few Gazillion Dollars

I was reading a review of Paul Allen’s memoir:

The Reclusive Other Half of Microsoft’s Odd Couple Breaks His Silence
By Janet Maslin
… It is primarily a book about the advance of technology, and about Mr. Allen’s truly forward-thinking, sometimes staggeringly important innovations…

I’ve lived in the Seattle area for more than a decade, have friends (even a relative) working at Microsoft, had a very (very) minor role in Experience Music Project when it opened – so I know something about Mr. Allan.  (My brother once played drums with guitarist Paul – a funny story only the sibling can tell.)

More from the NYT review:

He and Mr. Gates were present for the birth of the desktop personal computer … Now, he says, “here’s what the death knell for the personal computer will sound like: ‘Mainly I use my phone/pad, but I still use my PC to write long e-mails and documents.’ Most people aren’t there yet, but that’s where we’re headed.”

That sounds familiar:

Foretellings (May 2010)
With the exception of the workplace, smartphones (along with iPads and Kindles or something like them) might just make desktops and laptops and the web as we know it obsolete.  If ‘being connected’ mostly means communicating with friends, doing simple search, reading the news - then all that’s really needed is a smartphone.

It’s nice to know that the only thing that separates Yours Truly and Mr. Allan is just a few gazillion dollars.